58.03 - Ending the Illusion of Control: Let's Kick This Bad Forecasting Habit by Spyros Makridakis, Robin M Hogarth & Anil Gaba

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"Many reputable institutions issue regular economic forecasts that are widely cited in the international press. And yet, how accurate are these forecasts? Should we really trust them?

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In this manifesto, we note the dismal historical track record of much if not most economic forecasting. Despite this reality, however, people still have an insatiable need to issue and consume forecasts. We therefore make three proposals that can make forecasts both more relevant and useful."